I have not seen much detail offered for Mamdani's claims about state aid. So here is a quick sketch of how state funding has changed for NYC. Figure 1 shows major state aid catagories.
Some basic facts stand out:
1. The contribution of state aid as a proportion of total city revenue is slightly higher in 2024 (17.05%) than it was in 1980 (16.55%).
2. State aid as a proprtion of city total revenue is lower in 2024 than it was in 2010 (20.15%).
3. While education spending is more volitile, it looks to me like both education and social services aid have both been declining steadily in thier proprtion of total revenue.
4. There is a lot of noise after 2022. Both covid and migrant spending has likely driven up the relative increases in state aid. This money is also probably noisy in the sense that we don't know if this is direct state spending or indirect federal spending. The short term upward trend is unlikely to reflect long term trends. Mamdani's point of refrence was 2010-2022. Total state aid went from 20.15% of total revenue to 14.78% over that period. ~3 percentage points of that is a decline in education aid. Social services aid's contribution to revenues is cut almost in half 2010-2022. 3.4% in 2010 to 1.7% in 2022.
Link to data: https://www.ibo.nyc.gov/content/budget-and-finance-data NYC Fiscal History Data
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